Determination day to decide on the European Fee president

Decision day to choose the European Commission president

FT subscribers can click on right here to obtain Brussels Briefing daily by e-mail.

Issues are trying up for Ursula von der Leyen if the temper in Strasbourg is something to go by.

The nominee to be European Fee president faces her essential affirmation vote within the parliament at 1800 native time on Tuesday and can get up this morning feeling extra assured she’ll make the lower than 48 hours in the past.

After a sequence of eleventh hour conferences, cellphone calls, and letter alternate with parliament chiefs on Monday, Ms Von der Leyen has managed to persuade “a big majority” of the socialists to assist her in keeping with celebration vice-president Roberto Gualtieri. She will additionally depend on an amazing backing from her centre-right group and a bigger variety of liberal MEPs than was the idea every week in the past.

Nonetheless, there are many variables that would swing the ultimate outcome. Right here’s our listing of what is going to matter on determination day.

Elements in her favour

Nationwide management
The parliament’s political households are extra beholden than standard to nationwide capitals. The likes of Spain’s Pedro Sanchez and Portugal’s António Costa have performed an instrumental function marshalling centre-left MEPs. Emmanuel Macron, a Von der Leyen backer, has performed an analogous function in his liberal Renew Europe group. It means MEPs are a bit much less unbiased than up to now.

Sweeteners
Ms Von der Leyen has been dispersing coverage guarantees in letters to celebration teams. They haven’t been huge or flashy pledges, however it might have achieved the trick. One centre-left MEP mentioned colleagues who had been inclined to again Ms Von der Leyen now have the excuse they want.

As an additional sweetener, the German instructed officers on Monday that she won’t be preserving Martin Selmayr — a polarising determine within the Juncker administration — in his job as secretary-general.

The best buffer
Ms Von der Leyen has a vote cushion on the best. MEPs from ruling anti-establishment events in Poland and Italy could lend her assist, making up for misplaced votes amongst pro-EU events. This clearly carries a value for Ms Von der Leyen. And she or he could not even have the ability to take it as a right. The Eurosceptic European Conservatives and Reformists are smarting over the left and liberals stopping them from securing any senior jobs in parliament. Poland’s former prime minister Beata Szydlo failed once more on Monday to land a place to steer one of many parliament’s committees.

There is no such thing as a different
As identified in Monday’s Brussels Briefing, ought to Ms Von der Leyen fail, there isn’t a again up plan within the parliament or the council. No clearly viable different names are rising from both establishments making it all of the extra doubtless that it will likely be Ms Von der Leyen or bust.

Elements working in opposition to her

Absenteeism
The brink for a majority is 374 votes, no matter what number of MEPs truly flip up or handle to fill out their poll accurately. On previous type, it’s protected to imagine 10 per cent might be a no-show. That may make an enormous distinction.

No whips
That is the one democratic parliament on this planet that has no whips. (Please tell us if we’ve missed someplace.) Occasion self-discipline doesn’t come naturally to this place. Round six out of 10 MEPs are new. And it’s a secret poll. So treachery is reasonable.

The clock
Ms Von der Leyen has an uphill process. She didn’t have time to construct a pro-EU coalition. She didn’t have a coverage platform tried and examined within the European elections. She’s an unknown amount in Strasbourg. It means so much rides on her speech on Tuesday — avoiding the minefield of egos and political agendas. Most notably, she must hold some anti-EU nationalists completely satisfied, with out alienating her pro-EU base. One improper transfer . . .

Presidents underperform
Since Jacques Santer 20 years in the past, fee president nominees have typically underwhelmed in parliament votes. Their majorities are often smaller than anticipated. Jean-Claude Juncker got here to parliament with a good political wind, however solely emerged with a majority of 46. The numbers for Ms Von der Leyen are a lot tighter. She has no room for slip ups.

Von der Leyen reads

Political scientist Cas Mudde calls on MEPs to reject the “motley crew” of candidates together with Von der Leyen and proposed Excessive Consultant Josep Borrell. (The Guardian)Liberal Man Verhofstadt desires Von der Leyen to channel the spirit of John F Kennedy in Strasbourg this morning. (Focus)A divided socialist group is the primary risk to Von der Leyen’s election. (El País)What guarantees did Von der Leyen make in her effort to drum up votes. (Süddeutsche Zeitung)

Chart du jour: Home of Playing cards

The UK’s new Tory prime minister will inherit probably the most unpredictable and unruly Conservative celebration in many years. The chart above reveals how defections, by-elections and a supply-and-confidence take care of the DUP has chipped away at Tory unity (FT).

Planet Europe

Taking over Kovesi
France’s nominee to be the subsequent head of the European Public Prosecutor’s workplace makes his pitch for the job to Politico. Jean-François Bohnert, the choose of EU governments, is in a face to face contest with Romania’s acclaimed Laura Codruta Kovesi, the selection of the parliament, to steer the highly effective new physique.

Bibi bites
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has accused the EU of “Nazi appeasement” over its stance on the Iran nuclear deal (Reuters):

“[It] jogs my memory of the European appeasement of the 1930s. Then, too, there have been those that caught their head within the sand and didn’t see the approaching hazard. They received’t get up until Iran’s nuclear missiles hit European soil. By then it would in fact be too late”.

Macron to the rescue?
How Emmanuel Macron is attempting to play the function of mediator between Tehran’s mullahs and America’s firebrand president. (Der Spiegel)

Scooter mania
Electrical scooters have taken over main European capitals. The Guardian reviews from Copenhagen: simply one of many cities divided by the scooter revolution.

Boris and the Blitz
Gideon Rachman cuts by means of the cakeism of Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexiteering:

“Slightly than seeing his premiership crumble away like a stale Victoria sponge, the probabilities are that he would enchantment to the “Blitz spirit” — the legendary sense of nationwide solidarity that noticed Britain by means of adversity within the second world battle. It’s no accident that Mr Johnson is a biographer of Winston Churchill, the hero of Britain’s “best hour”.

Forgotten islands
Le Figaro visits Lesbos, an idyllic Greek island the place migrants are nonetheless there in pressure, trapped in squalid circumstances, whereas tourism has dwindled and resentment has elevated.

[email protected]; @mehreenkhn

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